The predicted growth reduction reflects an economic outlook that remains fragile in early 2019, with several significant downward revisions to economic forecasts in Germany, Italy, France and the UK, inter alia, as the forecast was being prepared.
Nevertheless, 2018 marked a new record year in terms of traffic volumes (+3.8% IFR movements compared with 2017, reaching 11.00 million flights), with European airlines increasing both load factors and seats per flight, resulting in record passenger numbers. However, a dampening effect was exercised in 2H2018 by increasing or volatile fuel costs, geopolitical tensions outside Europe and a weakening European economy, as well as increasing pressures on airlines.
This results in a flight forecast for Europe of slightly slower growth rates over the seven-year horizon than the previous forecast publication (October 2018), as follows: